Ensuring Orbital Safety from T-0: The Critical Imperative for Immediate Post-Launch Collision Avoidance

As the density of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment increases, driven by frequent rideshare missions and the deployment of mega-constellations, the initial phase of satellite operations has emerged as a period of heightened orbital risk. Historically, collision avoidance (COLA) processes have relied on established tracking by Space Situational Awareness (SSA) providers. However, this study demonstrates that waiting for third-party identification is no longer a viable strategy for responsible space actors.
This paper identifies three primary catalysts for immediate post-launch COLA. First, there is a significant “blind spot” in space traffic management: other operators do not receive Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) for newly released objects until they are officially cataloged. Second, during mass-launch events, the 18th Space Defense Squadron (Space-Track) often faces identification latencies lasting several weeks to months; during this period, operator-provided ephemerides are the only reliable source of orbital information for the SSA community. Third, the evolving regulatory landscape, exemplified by the ESA Zero Debris Charter, mandates proactive debris prevention from the moment of separation.
The research provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of collision probabilities during the first days of flight, alongside real-life case studies of close approach events. The findings underscore that independent orbit determination capabilities and early communication protocols are essential safety requirements, even for spacecraft without maneuver capabilities. While relevant for all satellites, small satellites are at higher risk, as they often lack these capabilities. We conclude that shifting COLA responsibilities to the immediate post-deployment phase is a fundamental requirement for the long-term sustainability of the space environment.